SERBIAN RAILWAYS - Projection of the Traffic Volume

The Railway and the Environment	Projection of the Traffic Volume	Financial Projection	Railway Restructuring
Human Resouces Policy	Environment Protection Policy	Possibilities of Privatization	Investments
Action Plan Supporting 2003-2007 Business Plan Implementation

1. PASSENGER TRANSPORT

TRAFFIC PROJECTION OF PASSENGERS CARRIED ON THE NETWORK OF RTE "BEOGRAD"
BY VARIANT

THOUSAND PASSENGERS

TYPE OF TRAFFIC	YEAR
TYPE OF TRAFFIC	2001*)	2002*)	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
PASSENG. CARRIED IN THOUS. (1+2)	9,243	8,541	8,742	9,930	10,504	10,217	12,405
1. DOMESTIC TRAFFIC	8,903	8,169	8,362	9,574	10,084	10,667	11,711
LOCAL	7,951	7,249	7,422	8,581	9,054	9,557	10,598
INTER-ENTERPRISE	952	920	940	993	1,029	1,110	1,113
2. INTERNATIONAL	340	372	380	356	420	550	694
3. BEOVOZ	4,412	5,637	5,750	5,400	5,778	6,182	7,078
TOTAL WITH BEOVOZ	13,655	14,178	14,492	15,330	16,282	17,399	19,483
PLANNED PKM IN MILL. (1+2)	1,046	992	1,015	1,088	1,117	1,181	1,274
1. DOMESTIC TRAFFIC	996	930	952	1,034	1,054	1,098	1,170
LOCAL	668	606	621	691	699	715	786
INTER-ENTERPRISE	328	324	331	343	355	383	384
2. INTERNATIONAL	50	62	63	54	63	83	104
3. BEOVOZ	62	79	80	76	81	87	99
TOTAL WITH BEOVOZ	1,108	1,071	1,095	1,164	1,198	1,268	1,373

1) Detailed outline in presented in Annex to Item 3.
*) Performance

PROJECTION OF PKM ON THE NETWORK OF RTE "BEOGRAD" BY VARIANT

million pkm

TYPE OF TRAFFIC	YEAR
TYPE OF TRAFFIC	2001*)	2002*)	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
PASSENG. CARRIED IN MILL. (1+2)	1,046	992	1,015	1,088	1,117	1,181	1,274
1. DOMESTIC TRAFFIC	996	930	952	1,034	1,054	1,098	1,170
LOCAL	668	606	621	691	699	715	786
INTER-ENTERPRISE	328	324	331	343	355	383	384
2. INTERNATIONAL	60	62	63	54	63	83	104
3. BEOVOZ	62	79	80	76	81	87	99
TOTAL WITH BEOVOZ	1,108	1,071	1,095	1,164	1,198	1,268	1,373

2. FREIGHT TRAFFIC

THE FREIGHT TRAFFIC FORECASTS (GRAPHS 3.2/1, 2; TABLES 3.2/ 1,2,3) ARE BASED ON:

THE PLANNED MARKET ORIENTATION OF RTE "BEOGRAD",
ESTIMATED TRENDS OF RELEVANT SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS,
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION AND ACTUAL TRAFFIC RESULTS,
STRUCTURE OF TRAFFIC FLOWS SO FAR IN DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC, AS WELL AS THE ACTUAL SEGMENTATION OF THE TRANSPORT MARKET,
TRAFFIC REQUIREMENTS EXPECTED FROM MAJOR TRANSPORT CUSTOMERS,
REQUIREMENTS FROM THE IMMEDIATE SURROUNDINGS.

DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF ECONOMIC REVITALIZATION AND REGIONAL INTEGRATION, THE FORECASTS ARE GIVEN IN THREE VARIANTS: OPTIMISTIC, MODERATE AND PESSIMISTIC.

ACTUAL TRANSPORT IN THE BASIC YEAR (2002) AMOUNTS TO 9.3 MILLION TONS (2.26 BILLION NTKM), WHAT MAKES ABOUT 31% OF THE LEVEL IN 1990 WHEN 29.5 MILLION TONS OF GOODS HAD BEEN TRANSPORTED (7.2 BILLION NTKM).

YEAR	PESSIM.	MEDIUM	OPTIM.	PESSIM.	MEDIUM	OPTIM.	PESSIM.	MEDIUM	OPTIM.
YEAR	TONS (in -000)			NTKM (in mill.)			AVERAGE TRANSPORT ROUTE (in km)
*2002)**	9,325	9,325	9,325	2,260	2,260	2,260	242	242	242
2003	9,434	9,875	10,333	2,151	2,450	2,441	228	248	236
2004	9,881	10,585	11,335	2,263	2,512	2,689	2,292	237	237
2005	10,352	11,351	12,438	2,381	2,703	2,963	230	238	238
2006	11,100	12,370	13,799	2,575	2,937	3,287	232	237	238
2007	11,577	13,271	14,889	2,704	3,176	3,566	234	238	240